Monday, December 31, 2007
NEW DELHI (AP) — No country should have more to fear from Pakistan's slide toward instability than India.
In the six decades since an independent India and Pakistan rose from the flames of the bloody partition of the subcontinent, the South Asian rivals have stared at each other across heavily armed frontiers with implacable hostility, fought three wars and engaged in tit-for-tat atomic tests.
Saber-rattling brought the two countries to the brink of nuclear war in 2001 after an attack on the Indian parliament that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-backed militants.
Yet as Pakistan has stumbled in recent months from a military dictatorship to a state of emergency, to uncertainty in the wake of the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, India's reactions have been tempered — even calm.
India put its troops on a higher state of alert after the emergency was declared and again after the Bhutto killing, officially blamed on Islamic militant groups. But it refrained from mass mobilization.
India's stock market dipped slightly the morning after the killing with investors concerned about instability in the region. By the afternoon, it had resumed its climb. News reports focused equally on the Indian cricket team's poor performance against Australia.
It's not that India is no longer worried about Pakistan — it is, deeply. But a decade of sustained economic growth — pegged at about 9 percent this year — has transformed India into a global economic player, giving it self-assurance and the cash to spend heavily on its military.
"The general confidence level in India today is much higher," said C. Uday Bhaskar, a prominent New Delhi-based defense analyst.
India has been content to let the United States spearhead efforts to secure Pakistan's nuclear arsenal — a development made possible by New Delhi's increasingly close ties with Washington after decades of Cold War hostility.
A continuing peace process between India and Pakistan since 2004 also done much to reduce India's anxiety over the possibility of a Pakistani attack.
"India is concerned and monitoring the situation in Pakistan," Bhaskar said. "But India is less worried about a Pakistani attack, that, in my assessment, is not a high probability."
For decades India has fought Islamic separatists in Kashmir, the Muslim-majority divided Himalayan region that both countries claim as their own and that is at the heart of the enmity between them. India and Pakistan have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir, where about a dozen groups, which New Delhi claims are supported by Islamabad, are fighting for independence for the region or to unite it with largely Muslim Pakistan.
In the last two years, India has been hit by a series of bomb attacks, including the July 2006 Mumbai train blasts that killed more than 200 people, attacks India blames on Pakistani-backed militants.
Even then, India's response was measured: The government suspended peace talks for several months, but there was no escalation or threats.
Still, India fears that the Kashmiri militants may be joined by al-Qaida or the Taliban, who are growing in power and influence in Pakistan.
"Our greatest fear is the large scale movement of terrorist activities from Afghanistan, through Pakistan, and into India," said retired Gen. Ashok Mehta, a strategic analyst in New Delhi.
In an attempt to strengthen democracy and stability in Afghanistan, India has donated some $750 million to reconstruction efforts since the Taliban fell, according to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, making it the third-largest donor after the U.S. and Britain.
More than 3,000 Indians are in Afghanistan building roads and dams, and setting up hospitals and the country's new Parliament building.
India's efforts have made it a close ally of the post-Taliban government, though its gains are dependent on the ability of U.S., NATO and other forces to maintain stability and prevent a Taliban resurgence.
"Since we are unable to influence the military events in Afghanistan, we are using our soft power," Mehta said.
Perhaps India's greatest problem is that while its relations with Pakistan have improved, it may not know whom to deal with there in the future as the situation deteriorates.
"India has dealt with strong military dictators and vacillating civilian leaders in Pakistan," C. Raja Mohan, a leading Indian strategic analyst, wrote in the Indian Express newspaper. "It has never faced a rudderless Pakistan."
HYDERABAD: India is ready to extend a helping hand to Pakistan to see that normalcy returns to the neighbouring country in the wake of the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Union Minister of State for Home Sriprakash Jaiswal said today.
"India wants to see stability, peace and democracy in its neighbourhood. Pakistan is passing through a difficult phase. We are ready to help Pakistan if asked to do so," he told reporters here.
He hoped that Pakistan would return to normal with the people's participation.
The minister was talking to reporters on the sidelines of the 31st passing-out parade of National Industrial Security Academy.
India wanted neighbouring countries to be progressive and strong. But recent happenings in Pakistan and disturbances in Sri Lanka and Myanmar are a matter of concern for New Delhi, Jaiswal maintained.
He said there were elements trying to create disturbances in the country but their attempts would be thwarted by security forces.
The morale of Indian security forces is high and they are ready to face any challenge, the minister asserted.
WAYLAND - Bowed down on bended knee, Muslim mourners rocked gently back and forth as they recited passages from the Koran under their breath. In a stone-quiet, rug-lined room, they quietly prayed for the departed soul of slain former Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto, and that the country find its way from unrest to peace and prosperity.
Some 100 men and women gathered yesterday at a solemn religious ceremony, called a Quran Khawani, at the Islamic Center of Boston to pay tribute to Bhutto, the Pakistani opposition leader who was assassinated at a Dec. 27 political rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
The mourners, many of whom had met Bhutto during her frequent visits to the Boston area and referred to her by first name, remembered her as a kind, courageous leader whose death has left the local close-knit Muslim-American community stricken with grief, anger, and fear.
"It's been devastating," said Dris Djermoun, president of the mosque. "She was a glimmer of hope for a country in turmoil. She was the face of democracy in a dictatorship. Now she's gone, and I can't fathom what's next."
At a round-table discussion after the prayer service, Tahir Chaudhry, president of the Pakistan Association of Greater Boston, compared Bhutto's assassination to John F. Kennedy's as a landmark political and cultural event.
"This is truly a 'Kennedy moment' for Pakistan," Chaudhry said. "It will be ingrained in our minds forever. But we hope that her very sad and tragic death will help restore democracy to Pakistan."
A two-time former prime minister, who in 1988 became the first woman to head the government of a Muslim nation, Bhutto returned to Pakistan in October after eight years in exile. Her death sparked widespread violence that has left at least 47 people dead.
Many who came to pay their respects yesterday are first-generation immigrants with family living in Pakistan who said they are deeply worried about family members in the volatile political climate.
"They are all so scared," said Humaira Kirmani, a 60-year-old from Lexington whose brother had to leave his car and walk 3 miles home to avoid riots and angry demonstrations in Karachi. "We are scared for them."
Kirmani wore a traditional Sindhi shawl that Bhutto had given her at a dinner party in 1969, when Bhutto was a student at Harvard University.
"I have felt so bad about what happened," she said. "I had to take it out today, to honor her memory."
Malik Khan, a former president of the mosque who lives in Boxborough, said the brutal, indiscriminate nature of the attack, which killed at least 20 others, has "put a cloud of anger, regret, and uncertainty over our community."
Khan and others said they admired Bhutto's courage in the face of great danger from Islamic extremists and said they were enraged at the barbaric nature of the attack, even more so because it targeted a woman.
"It's just the way of our culture," he said.
"A lot of people feel as if their daughter or sister has been hurt. She is the mother of children."
As mourners entered the mosque, they signed a condolence book next to flowers and a gold-framed picture of Bhutto, which she had inscribed to Barry Hoffman, Pakistan's honorary consul general in Boston.
Hoffman said her death, apart from its political ramifications, was a profound personal loss.
"She had that special magic," he said. "She would talk to you as though you were the most important person in the world."
Others criticized Bhutto as a flawed leader and sometimes divisive figure, but said her death has been a unifying force.
"A lot of people were disillusioned by the charges of corruption" aimed at her government, said Adil Najam, a Boston University professor of international relations.
"But you don't have to agree with her to be deeply saddened by her death. There is immense grief and fear of what comes next."
Najam speculated that Pakistanis were mourning "the culture of violence" that has gripped the country's political identity as much as Bhutto's death. But others said grief over Bhutto's murder crossed political boundaries.
"We have all become one," said Asmat Rafiq, a former commander in the Pakistani navy and a close family friend.
Amid fear of the current unrest, many said, was a flickering hope that her death would ultimately help advance the cause of democracy.
"She believed you needed democracy to root out the evils of dictatorship," said Faisal Khosa, 35, whose father is a legal adviser to Bhutto's party, the Pakistan 
NAUDERO, Pakistan (AP) — Benazir Bhutto's supporters met Sunday to choose a successor to the slain opposition leader, with either her son or husband seen as favorites, while the country's ruling party said crucial Jan. 8 elections would likely be delayed up to four months.
Bhutto's assassination Thursday plunged the nuclear-armed country into a political crisis and triggered nationwide riots that left at least 44 people dead ahead of the parliamentary elections, seen by the United States and other Western nations as key to promoting stability in the country.
A key opposition party said that it would reverse an earlier decision to boycott the vote if Bhutto's group decided to run. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party was expected to announce its decision later Sunday.
"We will definitely contest the elections if the PPP decides to contest," said Sadiq ul-Farooq, a senior member of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N party.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
NAUDERO, Pakistan (AP) — Supporters of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto met Sunday to choose her successor, with either her son or husband seen as favorites, while the country's ruling party said crucial Jan. 8 elections would likely be delayed up to four months.
Bhutto's assassination Thursday plunged the nuclear-armed country into a political crisis and triggered nationwide riots that left at least 44 people dead ahead of the parliamentary elections, seen by the United States and other Western nations as key to promoting stability in the country.
Tariq Azim, information secretary of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, said the vote would lose credibility if it was held now, with Bhutto's party in mourning and other opposition groups intent on boycotting. He expected authorities to announce a delay within 24 hours.
"How long the postponement will be for will be up to the Election Commission," he told The Associated Press. "I think we are looking at a delay of a few weeks ... up to three or four months."
Leaders of her Pakistan People's Party, meanwhile, were meeting Sunday in her ancestral home of Naudero in southern Pakistan to decide on a successor as party chief and its plans for the election.
"We will come up with a consensus, Bhutto's will and the meeting will determine it," Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, told reporters when asked whether he wanted the post. "The party has a lot of brave people and a lot of brave leaders."
The Pakistan People's Party has yet to say whether it would boycott the vote if it goes ahead as planned. A pullout by the party could destroy the credibility of the elections, already being boycotted by Pakistan's other main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif.
Police struggled to control the crowds in Bhutto's hometown of Naudero, many of whom had walked miles to get there. They shouted "Musharraf is a killer!" and called for the separation of Bhutto's home province of Sindh from the rest of Pakistan.
Controversy remained about whether she was killed by gunshots, a shrapnel wound or the concussive force of the blast. She was buried without an autopsy and the debate over her cause of death was undermining confidence in the government and further angering her followers.
On Saturday, the government rejected suggestions it should enlist foreign help in investigating Bhutto's assassination.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday that an international probe into Bhutto's death was vital because there was "no reason to trust the Pakistani government." Others called for a U.N. investigation.
White House spokesman Tony Fratto said Pakistan had not officially requested U.S. help.
"It's a responsibility of the government of Pakistan to ensure that the investigation is thorough. If Pakistani authorities ask for assistance we would review the request," he said.
A senior U.S. official, however, said Pakistan was already "discussing with other governments as to how best the investigation can be handled."
With the United States, the discussions "are about what we can offer and what the Pakistanis want. Having some help to make sure international questions are answered is definitely an option," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because no agreement had yet come from the discussions.
There was no immediate confirmation from Pakistani officials.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband offered his country's assistance. "Obviously it's very important that a full investigation does take place, and has the confidence of all concerned," he said.
The government has blamed the attack on Baitullah Mehsud, head of the Tehrik-i-Taliban, a newly formed coalition of Islamic militants along the Afghan border believed to be linked to al-Qaida and committed to waging holy war against the government.
But a spokesman for Mehsud, Maulana Mohammed Umer, dismissed the allegations as "government propaganda."
Bhutto's aides said they, too, doubted Mehsud was involved and accused the government of a cover-up.
"The story that al-Qaida or Baitullah Mehsud did it appears to us to be a planted story, an incorrect story, because they want to divert the attention," said Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for Bhutto's party.
Authorities initially said Bhutto died from bullet wounds. A surgeon who treated her later said the impact from shrapnel on her skull killed her.
But Cheema said Friday that Bhutto was killed when the shock waves from the bomb smashed her head into the sunroof as she tried to duck back inside the vehicle.
Bhutto's spokeswoman Sherry Rehman, who was in the vehicle that rushed her boss to the hospital, disputed that.
"She was bleeding profusely, as she had received a bullet wound in her neck. My car was full of blood. Three doctors at the hospital told us that she had received bullet wounds. I was among the people who gave her a final bath. We saw a bullet wound in the back of her neck," she said. "What the government is saying is actually dangerous and nonsensical. They are pouring salt on our wounds. There are no findings, they are just lying."
Cheema stood by the government's version of events, and said Bhutto's party was free to exhume her body for an autopsy.
The election commission has called an emergency meeting for Monday to decide how to proceed with the parliamentary elections. Riots have destroyed nine election offices — along with the voter rolls and ballot boxes inside, the election commission said.
In the eastern city of Bahawalnagar, meanwhile, two suspected suicide bombers died early Sunday when they prematurely detonated their bomb near the residence of Ijazul Haq, a senior leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q party, police said. Haq was not at home at the time. The blast was the first suicide attack in Pakistan since Bhutto's assassination.
